There are more and more reports of possible economic volatility and possibly recession. The share price of the cruise company Carnival Cruise has fallen victim to this. Last week it reported that its second-quarter figures were very positive. Both turnover and new bookings are ahead of the figures at the beginning of the year. Compared to the first quarter, sales were up 50% to $2.4 billion and an additional $5 billion was paid in advance by prospective passengers, with ship occupancy up from 54% to 69%. Despite the positive report, citing generally weakening demand and an extraordinary increase in costs, first Stifel then Wells Fargo investment banks considered lowering their target prices, and now Morgan Stanley has decided to go all in. According to them, the company could end up with a loss-making EBITDA of $900 million instead of the full-year profit of $1 billion originally planned, due to falling earnings and higher costs. They believe that occupancy will be weaker than expected, pricing will weaken, overheads will rise and fuel prices will be extremely higher. In their forecast, the worst-case scenario is a drop in the share price to zero. The company has $35 billion in debt, so its current cash position of $7.5 could fall quite quickly in a negative scenario. Citing the above, the target price was cut to $7 from the previous $13.1, causing the share price to fall 15% in a day. Morgan Stanley’s justification could stand for the whole sector, with competitor Norwegian and Royal Caribbean’s share price also falling by around 10% on the day. Carnival’s share value has fallen 60% since the start of the year.
