The European Travel Commission (ETC) has published a strategic foresight study entitled Future Proofing European Tourism Through Scenario Planning and Strategic Foresight, which examines global trends shaping the future of tourism and their potential impact up to 2035.
According to the report, six key factors will shape the sector over the next decade: climate change, technological and social transformations, European-level governance, the growth of the global middle class, generational shifts in demand, and labor and skills shortages. Of these, climate change and the rise of the middle class are certain trends, while governance and demand structures represent the greatest uncertainty.
The research outlines four possible scenarios:
- Fragmented and Familiar: With weak EU cooperation, global online platforms dominate the market. This leads to overtourism, while small businesses are increasingly pushed into the background.
- Coordinated and Familiar: EU cooperation is stronger, improving adaptability and risk management. At the same time, the market remains dependent on large platforms, and overtourism habits remain.
- Collaborative Transformation: Inclusive governance, generational change, and alignment with climate and digital considerations result in regenerative, value-driven tourism.
- Uneven Transformation: Local communities and small businesses drive innovation, but without EU-level cooperation, large disparities remain between regions.
The ETC’s recommendations include strengthening cross-border cooperation, supporting SMEs, targeted climate adaptation measures, and involving technology platforms in innovation. The organization also recommends setting up a tourism workshop to monitor future trends, which would help national tourism organizations track early signs of change (ETC).